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How many more years of Andrew Luck's prime are the Indianapolis Colts going to waste? Luck has been in the NFL five seasons, and the team hasn't finished better than 11-5 yet in that span. The team has only won two AFC South titles in that run and has won just three playoff games. Zero trips to the Super Bowl. Only one trip to the AFC Championship Game. Now, off of back-to-back .500 seasons, the pressure is starting to once again mount for a franchise that feels like it should be running away with the weakest division in the NFL year after year.
Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl Odds
Super Bowl Odds: +4000
AFC Championship Odds: +1500
AFC South Odds: +225
Odds Colts Make Playoffs: +130
Colts Regular Season Win Total: 8.5
All three of the Colts, Texans and Titans are basically in the same boat right now. All three have season win totals of 8.5, all three have Super Bowl odds of between 30 and 40 to 1, and all three figure to be fighting for a total of one playoff spot in the AFC South.
All three teams have reasons to be liked, but the Colts have the biggest in Luck. He was the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft five years ago for a reason, but he hasn't looked the part of a franchise quarterback for the past two campaigns. That's why it's hard to believe in Indy at this point and why the oddsmakers are tipping this to merely be an above-average team.
2017 Indianapolis Colts Schedule
Week 1: Colts at Rams – Sunday, September 10, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 2: Colts vs. Cardinals – Sunday, September 17, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Colts vs. Browns – Sunday, September 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Colts at Seahawks – Sunday, October 1, 8:30 p.m. ET
Week 5: Colts vs. 49ers – Sunday, October 8, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: Colts at Titans – Monday, October 16, 8:30 p.m. ET
Week 7: Colts vs. Jaguars – Sunday, October 22, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: Colts at Bengals – Sunday, October 29, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Colts at Texans – Sunday, November 5, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Colts vs. Steelers – Sunday, November 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: Colts vs. Titans – Sunday, November 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: Colts at Jaguars – Sunday, December 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: Colts at Bills – Sunday, December 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Colts vs. Broncos – Thursday, December 14, 8:25 p.m. ET
Week 16: Colts at Ravens – Saturday, December 23, 4:30 p.m. ET
Week 17: Colts vs. Texans – Sunday, December 31, 1 p.m. ET
The Indianapolis Colts Will Be a Success If…
... They can figure out how to return to dominance in AFC South games.
The knock on the Colts early in Luck's tenure was that they were just beating up on a bad division and weren't really deserving of being 11-game winners in any of those seasons; after all, Indy did go 16-2 in division and just 17-13 against the rest of the NFL in that span.
That said, in these last couple seasons, and Colts have started to show some cracks. They had never lost to the Texans before at home until two seasons ago, and they've now been beaten twice straight at Lucas Oil Field by Houston, both in games that ultimately decided the AFC South title.
Indianapolis isn't good enough to win nine games if it doesn't get at least four or five of those in division, and that means holding serve at home against all three teams in the AFC South.
The Indianapolis Colts Will Be a Failure If…
… They can't get some semblance of a running game going.
Running backs flat out aren't effective once they cross that magical 30-year old threshold. Frank Gore is well past that at this point, and he looked the part of ancient last year when he plodded to 3.9 yards per carry. Sure, Gore had 1,025 yards, but he was ridiculous inefficient and had just one carry the entire season out of his 263 that went for 20+ yards.
The big problem is that the Colts don't have anyone else to rely upon in the backfield. Robert Turbin? Maybe rookie Marlon Mack? Josh Ferguson? That's not a lot to be proud of right there.
Alas, Indianapolis has finished No. 22, No. 31 and No. 25 in the NFL in yards per carry in the last three seasons respectively, and it hasn't finished with more than 4.0 yards per carry. In a related story, Luck gets hit more than almost any other quarterback in the NFL, and he's now missed 10 games due to injury in the last two seasons.
Indianapolis Colts 2017 Predictions
The Colts are going to be putting a lot of emphasis on a lot of new defensive players in 2017. Rookies Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson are going to be expected to step in immediately and start, while Jabaal Sheard, John Simon and Sean Spence are all newcomers who are going to step right into starting roles as well.
Generally speaking, it takes time for these new players to gel. The good news is that the team's first divisional game doesn't come until Week 6. The schedule leading up to that point includes all the games against the NFC West (including the team's only two West Coast trips of the season) and a home date with the Browns.
It's looking good for Indy in the future, but a running game is badly needed. Aaron Rodgers has proven that teams can win without running the ball in the NFL, but Luck isn't quite Rodgers yet. Unless he's ready to make that step, the Colts will top out at 9-7 and be 50/50 to get into the postseason.
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